Joe Willock to Tyneside: The Next Mike Ashley-era Newcastle Flop

On the morning of the first Premier League match of the season, Arsenal’s 21-year-old attacking midfielder Joe Willock has confirmed a £25 million move to Newcastle United. As the Gunners take on newly-promoted Brentford this afternoon, they will be without the young Englishman who’d spent his entire career with the club. Willock spent the second half of the previous season in Newcastle, loaned to the club in January of 2021. In 11 starts and 3 substitute appearances, Willock bagged 8 goals helping to drag Newcastle out of the relegation zone and into a 12th place finish. Willock’s heroic performances towards the back half of the season meant that the Magpies lost just two of their final nine matches with Willock bagging equalizers or winners in 5 of the 9. The Toon earned key points against Tottenham, Liverpool, West Ham, and Leicester City in April alone with Willock being vital in every result. Tactically flexible and able to play as a winger, attacking midfielder or central midfielder, Willock is a manager’s dream. As relegation candidates at the beginning of the season, and fighting the drop as late as March, Newcastle United and manager Steve Bruce had to have been pleased with Willock and the results he brought the club on the pitch. So why is this another doomed transfer for the Toon?

In the first half of the 20/21 season, Willock made 7 appearances for Arsenal totaling just 234 minutes of Premier League action and failed to find the back of the net, while in the COVID affected 2019/20 season, Willock made 29 appearances for the Gunners however only contributing one goal and one assist in that time. Aged just 21, Willock is mostly unproven and has yet to complete an entire season of top flight football. Though his fiery form at the back end of last season may have captured the hearts of the Newcastle faithful, Willock’s underlying stats reflect a worrying trend.

In his first true season of Premier League football, Willock made 29 appearances for Arsenal with only 8 starts totaling 857 minutes on the pitch. A small sample size, but enough to get a grasp of what the young player brings to the table. Willock contributed just one goal and one assist in that time, a generally poor return for an attack-minded player. Willock often took up a deeper role at Arsenal, acting as a more central-midfield player attempting to progress the ball to the attacking players while also having license to get forward. In his time at Arsenal in 2019/20, Willock was putting up just 0.25 xG* (Expected Goals) per 90 minutes and just 0.09 xA (Expected Assists) per 90, though his season tally of 2.3 xG meant that he was expected to score slightly more often than he did that year. These numbers aren’t incredibly worrying for a 19/20-year-old, but were expected to jump in the coming years. As a ball progressor, Willock also fell below the league and team averages at Arsenal. He completed just over 66% of attempted dribbles at an average of 2.37 per 90 minutes as well as an 81.3% pass completion. His dribble completion and pass completion put him well below his midfield competition at Arsenal at the time, though he was by far the most successful dribbler in their midfield. As well as this, Willock was also by far the poorest progressive passer in the Arsenal midfield, completing 2.96 per 90 in his last two seasons compared to 6.57 from Granit Xhaka, 5.78 from Dani Ceballos, and 5.84 from Mateo Guendouzi. At Newcastle, Willock’s underlying numbers did not make the jump some expected. Though he scored 8 vital goals, his xG per 90 was only 0.33 and totaled 3.6 for the season, meaning he greatly overperformed in front of net. As well as this, Willock did not make improvements to his midfield game. Though in a restrictive Steve Bruce system at Newcastle, Willock’s pass completion percentage and progressive passes per 90 both fell. He only completed 54% of long passes attempted and his attempted dribbles and dribble completion both dropped. Now 21, Willock is expected to make significant progress this season in his overall game. This pressure will be doubled by the fact that he has been brought in permanently by Newcastle who hope that Willock will be able to help keep them from relegation yet again. Willock will be a key man in manager Steve Bruce’s system, with the squad and fans looking for him to be a primary creative source in a team that can be starved for goals.

Young Joe Willock does bring a new look and a bit more dynamism from midfield for Newcastle United this year as well as giving them another attacking outlet. However, his form at the back end of last season can safely be chalked up to a purple patch. It is likely Willock will make slight progress in his game, but don’t expect another strong goal tally. Newcastle are once again one of the favorites for relegation in this year’s Premier League, and the transfer of Joe Willock is unlikely to sway the odds greatly in their favor. The fee of £25 million is a large one for owner Mike Ashley who has only spent more on a single player once in his reign that began in 2007, a notable flop, Joelinton. For a club battling the drop, this was clearly a poor move for the Magpies who have gaps in their squad at defensive midfield, striker, and fullback. Willock is not only an average young player that does not solve any of Newcastle’s main issues, but is greatly overpriced. Transfermarkt values Willock at £12.69 million, just over half the fee paid for the player. Arsenal will be pleased with the business as even in the short time he spent in the first team, it was clear to the hierarchy that Willock would never meet the standard of the club. This inflated fee also gives Arsenal more cash to play with in their own transfer plans, hoping to directly replace Willock with young star James Maddison from Leicester City. From a Newcastle perspective, the big fee paid for Willock most likely means the club will not make any more significant signings; a difficult prospect for the Toon Army to grapple with. It will be another long season for Newcastle United as the historic club battles yet another relegation and likely a long season for young Joe Willock as he fights to cement his top flight quality.

*All stats gathered from fbref.com