Another Season of Disappointment for the Mets in Store? Why the #LGM Won't Make the Playoffs; Again.

It’s mid-August, and as some people’s attentions shift towards the upcoming NFL football season and the start of European football, mine are still focused on the Major League Baseball season. As an Angels fan, playoff baseball feels like a distant memory and an unreachable goal. However, for the Northeast’s franchises, playing significant games in September is the expectation this season. In the National League East, the Mets sit 3.5 games back of first place at a record of 59-59 after sitting atop their division for most of the year. In the American League East, the Yankees and the Red Sox battle with the Rays for first place and the coveted playoff spot. Today we’ll be looking at the potential playoff push for the New York Mets who have had an up and down season to say the least. This is just part one, as I’ll be covering the chances of the Red Sox and Yankees in the coming days.

In Flushing, New York, just outside Queens, Mets fans have watched as their team has slipped from the top of their division over the past month. It has been a difficult season for the Metropolitans; injuries have meant that they have used the most unique players in the league and their lineup has regularly failed to produce the needed run support for their staff. Jacob de Grom has had one of the best seasons on record despite missing large chunks due to niggling injuries and new star signings Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez have faced the same. The only constant this year for the Mets has been the expectation of a new look lineup daily. After a rough end of July and a worse start to August, the Mets are now behind both the Phillies and the Braves in the division and sit 6.5 games from a wild card spot. With teams such as the Padres, Dodgers, and Reds competing for the two Wild Card spots, it is unlikely the Mets will be able to make up the 5+ games necessary to grab a place. So how real are the Mets’ chances of winning their division and making the playoffs for the first time since 2016?

The Mets have already spent months atop the NL East this season and have built an atmosphere of hope within their fanbase this year. New owner Steven Cohen has been outspoken in his desire to see the Mets in the playoffs and has attempted to make progress towards that goal. After the off-season signing of Francisco Lindor, Mets fans were hopeful that big investment would pay off. However, they have faced a number of challenges on their way there. Noah Syndergaard has missed the entirety of the season after offseason Tommy John surgery while Jacob de Grom has only managed about half a season of starts. In terms of injuries, they are just the start for the Mets. Carlos Carrasco has just returned from the IL after missing the whole season, Javy Baez only managed 10 games after being traded, Dellin Betances had season ending shoulder surgery, Joey Lucchessi tore his UCL, and countless other players have missed weeks of the season with injuries. If it wasn’t for the Mets’ unbelievable pitching staff, they may have never seen the top of the division this season.

In the past three weeks, the Mets have lost 9 of 13 games played including being swept by divisional rivals Philadelphia and Wild Card hopefuls Los Angeles Dodgers. They lost the series to the Marlins and look to be on their way to dropping another series against NL West leaders the Giants. It doesn’t get any easier for the Mets. After the series in San Francisco, they take a trip to LA to face the Dodgers again and come home to play the Giants in a homestand that lasts through the end of August. After the completion of the series against the NL West leaders, the Mets have key division games against the Marlins and Nationals. If the Mets can find a way to win one of the three series against the Giants or Dodgers as well as winning each of the four series against the Marlins and Nats, they stand a fighting chance of taking the division. If the Mets can remain within striking range of their rivals by mid-September, they will play the most important series’ of their season against their challengers; one at home against the Phillies and one in Atlanta. Of course, they cannot look too far ahead, but it is not unreasonable to think the Mets can grab hold of the NL East again. Do they have the firepower to do so?

The Mets’ main issue this season, apart from injuries, has surely been their offense’s inability to score runs. On the season, nobody with a qualified number of at bats has an OPS above .830. The sole man to do so is slugger Pete Alonso, who’s racked up 25 home runs on the year. However, Alonso has struggled to produce at Citi Field. New addition Javy Baez was an exciting one for Mets fans and is due to return within a few days. However, Baez may not be all he is hyped up to be. Baez has only accumulated a sub .240 OBP this year as well as making 20 errors on the year. Most of his 24 home runs have come in a Cubs uniform and he is in the last year of his contract, meaning the Mets traded for what could be a rental. Francisco Lindor is also due to return soon with a target of late August. Lindor signed a 10 year $341 million contract this offseason, a massive investment for a player who is already 27 years old. Lindor has been an infectious positive influence in the locker room this year as evidenced by his support of teammates and constant smiles on the field. However, Lindor has failed to produce the numbers expected of him this year. Lindor is batting just .228 and has 11 home runs, both far off his peak numbers in Cleveland from years passed. He’s managed to keep his OBP above .300, but compared to his career, this is also down. It continues a worrying trend for the Puerto Rican shortstop of three consecutive seasons of falling numbers across the board. Before his injury, it seemed as though Lindor was turning a corner. Now, after missing over a month of the season, Lindor will be back at square one. It’s unlikely he will be able to give the Mets struggling offense the boost it needs. Dominic Smith is the only Met aside from Alonso with more than 40 RBI’s, but his -0.1 bWAR* tells a different tale on his performances. With a large number of players in and out of the team, the Mets have struggled to find consistent bats all season. Their team averages are reflective of this trend.

The Mets have left the 4th fewest men in scoring position in the Majors this year. However, they bat just .239 with RISP and have the 7th worst batting average in the league. Their middle-of-the-pack OBP and 4th worst SLG% also reflect that the Mets are failing to even get runners on base and especially into scoring position. The addition of Baez is yet to reap reward with his injury, but it may be too late for the Mets by the time he returns. Watching Lindor and Baez in the middle infield as well as returning de Grom will give the Mets a needed boost towards the back end, it’s hard to see how it will be enough. The Mets have scored the 3rd least runs all season and it is too much to ask for one or two men to change that. Their results in the past month have been damning and have given the initiative to their rivals, who seem to be taking advantage. Even without Ronald Acuña, the Braves are steaming ahead while the Phillies are playing some of the best baseball in the league in the past month. With one of the toughest remaining schedules in baseball, the Mets will face a serious challenge to make it to October.

With Jacob de Grom’s return date still unknown, the Mets are a long shot for the playoff this year. Baseball Reference only gives the Mets a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs this year, yet their destiny is greatly in their hands. Their pitching staff is one of the best and most exciting in the league with Marcus Stroman, de Grom, Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker. But with consistent injuries and an inconsistent lineup, the Citi Field faithful will be in for another disappointing season of missing out on October. The highlight of the season will surely be the glorious return of the Mets’ black home alternate jerseys; but don’t fret too much, Mets fans. With Steven Cohen at the helm, the team will be making big steps to returning a World Series title to New York in the coming years.

*bWAR refers to Wins Above Replacement calculated by baseball-reference.com. All stats have been gathered from baseball-reference.com.